Coinspeak Technical and Fundamental Market Analysis
It’s over. Bend the knee to Bitcoin. Bezos and Musk will be court jesters in the age of Bitcoin.
Neckbeards in Lambos are our future. Men who can’t wash their nether regions unassisted are the new financial lords of the universe. They mined Bitcoin on their mom’s AMD laptop in 2012 and now they can buy 50% of the companies on the S&P.
Fly’s hallowed halls are in decay. Millenial Bitcoin Operators are taking over. Don’t fear, we will be sure to reserve space for a plaque to honor the past greatness of Stock traders. RIP.
But things are unsettled in Crypto. Bitcoin nears $6,700 but it’s a speeding train headed to a valley with no bridge.
Alas, the neckbeards are taking arms against each other. They’ve taken breaks from LARPing to point their sharp barbs and most wicked memes in each other’s general direction and shots have been fired.
We have Battle of the Bitcoins.
- Bitcoin Core. Headed by lead dev and Blockstream CEO Adam Back
- Bitcoin Cash. The version of Bitcoin that honors the original design and direction of Bitcoin
- Bitcoin 2x. To be forked from Bitcoin Core in ~2 weeks
If it didn’t immediately jump out at you…..the fucking CEO of Blockstream is the lead dev of Bitcoin Core. LOL that’s like Blankfein being the Fed Reserve Chair. Conflict of interest much? And then Bitcoin Core wonders why people are pissed off. Blockstream exists to siphon value from Bitcoin into their own coffers. This battle is about taking control of Bitcoin back from Blockstream.
Much like Highlander, there can be only ONE Bitcoin. These three versions will battle for supremacy and there will be epic levels of fuckery in two weeks. Expect 50% intraday price swings. All you blue balled Bitcoin bears will see fantastical price crashes. But Bitcoin may hit $10k by mid November before the fireworks begin!
So, here’s your Bitcoin survival plan:
- Put coins on an exchange that will grant holders 2x coins soon after fork.
- Set your sell / buy orders as you see fit ahead of the fork.
- Buckle the fuck up.
Personally I’ve gone full retard. I am all in on Bitcoin Cash. I will be sitting on the sidelines with a big bag of popcorn in mid November. I am playing the long game. I will either get #REKT in true Crypto legend fashion or I will 10x my returns for getting in early and low. I am what I call “irresponsibly allocated”.
Many of you may have real world responsibilities that prevent you from YOLO’ing your net worth on a monthly basis like yours truly. However, if you do own some Bitcoin you can hedge with Bitcoin Cash. I don’t care if you agree with my investing thesis at 14:1 ratio you can hedge your Bitcoin portfolio with Bitcoin Cash and it fucking makes sense. It’s cheap insurance.
The next few weeks will determine if I get my dick guillotined or am able to buy a small private island.
Good day to you sir.
I’m sitting on 15x bitcoin, soon to be 30x? Niiice!
6700?
That was soooooo last hour. Just shy of 6900 now
Will hit 7000 before World Series is wrapped by the Astros
So, we are putting coins from our cold storage back to what exchange, until a fork?
Here’s what you want to avoid. *IF* a chain loses enough hash then transactions on that chain could take a very long time. Worst case that chain freezes due to lack of hashpower. Bitcoin was designed so that in a fork if a chain dies you’d have the split coins so, theoretically, the value would transfer to the new chain. But we’ll have THREE chains and only Bitcoin Cash has an EDA (emergency difficulty algorithm) in place.
If you have your coins on an exchange you can set limit orders HOWEVER every exchange has said they will freeze trading until the chains stabilize. This is their safety net that traders can’t trade their coins on the exchange when the chain has essentially frozen.
I suspect there may be a window of time where exchanges will enable trading and the trump cards will be played by whales and miners that will determine the fate of Segwit Coin, 2x and possibly BCH. During that window of time you want to be nimble, unless you’ve already made your choice and are locked in for popcorn time.
If your coins are in your wallet you may miss that window of opportunity. I never recommend keeping your coins on an exchange but this is an extreme situation calling for extreme measures.
Thanks homie
Good post and good luck.
Its seems prudent to hold on to all of your forked coins. So say you have been hodling 10 Bitcoins for awhile now, you would want to keep the 10 Bitcoin Cash your received from the fork, just in case it’s the one. And then when 2X hits in a couple weeks don’t sell anything. Keep all 3 versions.
I feel like there’s a prevelant never sell mentality that could be a lot of coins downfall. Its created massive paper profits cuz every fork is basically free money…which provides a lot of insentive to keep forking it into oblivion. It’ll work as long as people never realize their gains and keep every fork as insurance.
The panic starts when everybody wants to buy their own private island and need to cash out into FED “fun” tickets to buy it. So far all the crypto pricing happens at the margin, not the core. No depth, very shallow pool.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin futures?
Cant be any worse than GBTC. If they’re liquid enough that NAV premium will have to close. Too bad GBTC is so hard to get a borrow on.
In my experience it best to avoid shorting situations such as this. Blow off tops are hard to call. The alleys of Wallstreet are full of homeless traders who in a former life employed this strategy. Bearded men with halitosis bereft of money for the most basic needs.
I’m not talking about naked shorting bitcoin. You short GBTC and buy Bitcoin futures. You’d basically be short the NAV premium on GBTC.
I guess I can see a scenario where you enter this trade, the futures end up being an illiquid dud and people pile into GBTC and the NAV premium has some kind of weird blow off top. So, yes there is real liquidity risk. But there isn’t much price risk.
Just go long crypto with Fed fun coupons. Limited time offer.
You can get a good look at steak by sticking your head up a bull’s ass but wouldn’t you rather take the butcher’s word for it?