Crypto is going through a typical bubble cycle. After euphoria we have capitulation, despair and then a resumption of trend at a more sane pace.
Looking back at history we can see this bubble cycle play out again and again. As the legendary investor Jesse Livermore said:
“There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”
What surprises me is the amount of pundits who say BTC still has a shot at reaching all time highs again. While it’s true Amazon lost over 80% in value during the dot com crash before becoming a $1T dollar company many companies that had much higher valuations than Amazon during the crash are no longer around. The difference is Amazon had a viable business model, great leadership and a roadmap beyond the hype. I can’t say that about BTC.
The darlings of crypto 2 years ago are mostly faint memories. Today’s market leaders may not be top 10 coins by mid 2019. There comes a point where not only does the hype die off but the market learns and applies hard lessons to future valuations.
Pundits like to point back to times Crypto had a huge decline and then posted new highs. Those were different times. Crypto was not on CNBC 24/7 during those runs. The market has gotten smarter. The pundits have not.
Gone are the days of a whitepaper and a website generating millions with an ICO in 24 hours. That’s never coming back in Crypto. I mean it. NEVER.
Yet many people are buying shitcoins like it’s 2017. These people lack decorum and will have their funds liquidated post haste.
What matters now is adoption. Real world users with real world use cases. I’m not talking about credit cards that debit your Crypto balance or being able to buy Crypto via Square. That’s the status quo putting a yoke on Crypto. If that’s our future then Crypto lost.
The bloom is off the rose. 2019 will be the year Crypto proves itself. Bitcoin Is Dead. Long Live Bitcoin.
Taking this criteria what looks good? What coins have potential to step into that role? What does it take to fulfill that role? Who are the leaders to watch?
I’ll make it easy for you. Only one coin has a roadmap and has taken the first steps towards that future. Bitcoin SV (BSV).
In this future I’m talking about companies using Bitcoin as a commodity ledger. Using Bitcoin smart contracts to execute business processes, loans, logistics, escrow and payments. Using Bitcoin as the way to assign value to every piece of information in the world. Once we can value information effortlessly our information becomes more valuable. It’s a repeating and self reinforcing cycle.
Using Bitcoin’s utility inside Bitcoin will change how business is done. One of the things Bitcoin can provide is transparency. In other words, integrity. Imagine Enron or Lehman or AIG if their books were verified on a commodity ledger (this does not mean anyone could view it but it could mean that it’s accuracy could be independently verified). In this example companies could state the hash of their financials publicly via a Bitcoin transaction. Each hash is unique. This hash locks the statement about the data into a public record. Auditors can then verify that hash against the files they receive from the company. New quarterly financials can be posted with a new hash.
The mortgage meltdown happened in part because banks could no longer track all the terrible loans they had repackaged into toxic packages and resold to retirement funds. That would not happen if Bitcoin were tracking those loans.
An immutable blockchain means those firms can’t fudge their numbers. There is no erase. You can only write new data. The audit trail is always there.
Imagine the Pentagon held to account. They’ve only lost $7T in taxpayer money in the past couple years and that doesn’t cause a revolution? Bitcoin could stop that with just a few quarterly or yearly transactions.
That’s a game changer.
That’s just the start. Imagine every webpage on the Internet linked to payments in Bitcoin. What has value is rewarded. What doesn’t have value is not. Information becomes our new currency. The fear, uncertainty and doubt that has led to human misery, unfair advantages, economic upheaval and even war is exposed. Truth wins because truth has value.
Now, imagine every component of your car has a supply chain history via Bitcoin. Now scale that to everything.
This is Bitcoin.
So while Jesse Livermore’s quote above is still correct: “there is nothing new in the market” we are now entering a new phase. Jesse is speaking about the speculation phase and he’s correct. Now, we are entering a new phase. This Time is Different.
Bitcoin has shrugged off the pretenders. Now it’s time to really show what Bitcoin can do.
I expect Bitcoin to rally in 2019.
Unless stated otherwise when I say Bitcoin I am exclusively referring to Bitcoin SV (BSV). BSV is Bitcoin and the only crypto that has the ability to scale with a roadmap that includes Metanet and global cash.
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