Coinspeak Technical and Fundamental Market Analysis
FB released their whitepaper on Libra coin today. The opinions on it are flying around the web.
My brief takeaways:
Libra won’t go live until sometime in 2020. So it’s all a temperature check and FUD as FB algos crunch how to adjust their propaganda. Part of the paper says that as the tech matures that Libra coin will be further decentralized. Do you believe they will build this and then turn over any part of control? Never. This is a classic shell game.
FB users will not care what Libra is or bother to understand “blockchain”. They can barely manage their own messages. To the average FB user they will see they can now pay for their pizza inside FB. That will be useful. Now, imagine trying to secure the average FB users funds in an online wallet. There is going to need to be a serious breakthrough in usability and trust for Libra to be safe for anything other than pizza money.
Speaking of trust, what level of funds would you put into custodial ownership under FB? Pizza money? Car payments? Rent? Savings? I don’t see how FB breaks through from petty cash to replacing significant payment systems. The same can be said of Bitcoin. However, with Bitcoin you retain privacy and have no 3rd party risk.
FB will have 2B users to start. If all the early adopters deposit $20 USD Libra will probably be a top market cap coin. But that is relatively meaningless and could fade quickly. FB coin faces a different regulatory challenge than Bitcoin but I think in the end Bitcoin may have an easier time overcoming hurdles due to it being truly decentralized.
In the end I’m left with the boys from Silicon Valley do not understand Bitcoin. Bitcoin is an economic system expertly blended and balanced to provide a new global ledger. This ledger is immutable and can provide honest money for the world. I have been emphasizing “honest money” the past few posts. This is the differentiator. FB has zero chance of ever being a custodian of honest money
There is only one Bitcoin. The rest are just glorified databases and spreadsheets.
