You know nothing John Snow (FB and YELP)

A few weeks ago there were several IBC blog posts bashing FB and YELP. I should know, I wrote several of them.

Look at them now. FB is up more than 20% since June 1. YELP up for 50% gain.

RaginCajun and ChessNWine opened and closed FB positions. IBC blamed FB for everything from egregious stock losses to impotence. There was no more unpopular stock than FB at ~$26.

Let’s be honest, this is a Costanza market. When there is that much hate for a stock step back, clear your mind and consider: is this a buying opportunity? Buying the blood would have been extremely profitable here.

Never catch a falling knife you say? Well, I think these stocks were hammered on sentiment. Moods change faster than fundamentals. Negative news can fade quickly. Long term I maintain FB and YELP are not buys for my style, but looking back I can see where I missed a huge opportunity.

Hindsight is 20/20, but sometimes history repeats itself. If you fail to see that pattern repeatedly you are not learning.

Buying those stocks at the same time I penned missives outlining their flaws would have been hard. But there are times that’s exactly the right thing to do.

Sometimes we’re all John Snows in this market.

About coinspeak

20 years as an IT consultant. Escaped the rat race in 2015. Addicted to travel and tacos.

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  1. “Buying those stocks at the same time I penned missives outlining their flaws would have been hard. But there are times that’s exactly the right thing to do.”

    In general , it is not a good idea to contradict yourself when trading. If you penned missives, you were bearish. Simple at that. When technical shows an uptrend and you want in, you’ve to open to the idea that there may be something to the stock than what you believe in. Once you are open to the idea; then you buy in.

    Right now, you are “regretting” based on hindsight. Don’t waste time with “could’ve, should’ve” based on hindsight; instead use hindsight to help decide if you still want to go long.

    Don’t be afraid to go long even when price already gone back up by 50%; if the 50% resistance fail to hold the stock down; that is actually good info to go long or add YELP.

    However, you may feel the risk is more than you want to take with YELP or FB at current price; then you just have to let it go.

    If I buy YELP now, I’ll put a stop at below yesterday low.

    Lost opportunities are always abundant in the land of hindsight; whereas losses are real and gains are hard won battles in live trading.

    Just some thought on a slow day…

  2. Although I try to be objective YELP and to less extent FB are not worth to invest in. However, it seems market start liking them mainly because other sectors are out of favor.

  3. Yogi and Boo Boo

    It all depends on style. I made a nice trade in $FB posted in almost realtime inside 12631, but I would ind it hard to tell anyone to follow or fade me.

  4. FB kind of got me, late May I sold the June 28 put for 1.05, so 26.95 cost basis if it closed below 28 on June expiration. I was happy with assignement but the damn thing ran the last 2 days until expiration. Being long at 26.95 would be a lot better, but also collected $105/contract. So not too upset, but one reason why I like selling puts to get stock.

  5. I don’t have regrets on FB or YELP. I was just musing on the Constanza-ness of it all. Still, very good points about being in the present Zen

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