Bitcoin Thanksgiving is cancelled

There will be no rest this weekend for Bitcoiners.

Bitcoin Core (AKA BTC) will have a scheduled “difficulty adjustment” sometime on Saturday. A “DA” occurs every 2016 blocks. During this time the algorithm for mining difficulty adjusts according to current conditions to maintain a consistent rate of new blocks/bitcoins into the system.

There are rumors that the mining power for Bitcoin will shift shortly after this adjustment to Bitcoin Cash (AKA BCH). This would cause big problems for Bitcoin as Bitcoin would become slow and (more) expensive while also being the furthest distance possible from the next difficulty adjustment to make up for lost mining power. This sudden shift in mining power could lead to a death spiral for Bitcoin Core.

This might be the beginning of the “flippening” where Bitcoin Cash replaces Bitcoin as the dominant crypto currency.

One way for BTC to counter this is if BTC price continues higher so it is more profitable to mine than BCH. And look, BTC is at all time highs.

If you haven’t hedged your BTC position with BCH you have a few days left. I don’t know if this will happen as outlined. It’s been publicly discussed in many communities so it should not be a surprise. I expect that Bitcoin Core has a contingency plan.

None of the above may take place, but if it does you’ve been warned.

I personally do not think it would be healthy for crypto in general to have a fast and violent flippening. It would be very disruptive. People would lose a lot of money (BCH holders would get rich very quickly tho) and it would set the ecosystem back. It would be better for Bitcoin Cash to eat Bitcoin’s lunch over the next several months. Then there could be an orderly transfer of wealth with the earliest adopters making the greatest profits.

Bitcoin Core is not defenseless. Things will get crazy. This is more than a battle for today’s digital tokens. It’s a battle for who influences the future of money.

Better to have your Bitcoin affairs in order prior to Saturday.

I remain irresponsibly allocated in Bitcoin Cash.

About coinspeak

20 years as an IT consultant. Escaped the rat race in 2015. Addicted to travel and tacos.

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  1. embrace extend extinguish

  2. All forecasts are null and void if Bitfinex / Tethers cause a dot com style 90% collapse.

    Until that resolves, YOLO.

  3. If you’re into Bitcoin Cash, you may want to read a Coindesk article. I don’t do “cash” but the similarities to Coin are apparently causing issues for some.
    “What’s Next for Bitcoin Cash? Stopping Users From Losing Funds”:

  4. Well, DA day is here and it looks like the Core folks are trying to put some distance between BTC and BCH.

    Just waiting for the BCH team to make a move. Perhaps they bought up a lot of BTC that they’ll suddenly exchange for BCH. Price is 5.5:1 right now so a move like that could be quite significant. Crash BTC while jacking up BCH.

    Thoughts so far?

  5. It appears the old maxim, “Markets don’t like uncertainty” doesn’t hold for crypt-currencies. BTC taps 8.7K, Ethereum $468, BCH 1.6K

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