NOTE: I wrote  this post before the Hodlnaut trial, Craig’s return to Twitter and the zero transaction miner so I won’t address those topics here.

In this post I am offering my take on how to save BSV.

Who am I and why should you read this?

I have 30 years of business experience in tech, sales, management and finance. I consulted for Fortune 500 companies and worked with entrepreneurs across a variety of industries. Additionally, I coached hundreds of clients on personal and professional development.

Fun fact, Craig Wright and I were born 1 day apart in 1970.

While I have chosen to retain my anonymity, it’s important to know I have experience behind what I’m writing.

Bitcoin SV has underperformed as a payment network, lagged in user adoption and underperformed as an asset. These are all interrelated. In my view, BSV cannot afford more of the same.

Some may say how dare I pen a post on how to save BSV. To that I say “Good, I’m glad you’re here”. You are my target audience. Keep reading.

Satoshi’s Vision

Let’s start with one of the main speaking points in 2022: BSV and IPv6 integration. At a high level the two protocols can interoperate which enables web based microtransactions, secure authentication, and secure communication. Web based microtransactions have the potential to reshape how we use the Internet.

If the Internet is a snapshot of the human conversation on this planet then that conversation is dominated by clickbait (and cat pics). The incentives for creating valuable content are broken. As a result, humans have been moving the wrong way on the Kardashev vs Kardashian society continuum and the stakes of the outcome couldn’t be higher.

IPv6 and BSV integration has the potential to change how we use the Internet and by extension how we interact with each other. The catch is that IPv6 has been available for more than 20 years with a meager  40% adoption rate globally.

While BSV/IPv6 integration has enormous potential that potential is several years away from being realized. The fact this is the current main talking point nearly 13 years after the whitepaper and four years since BSV was on the path to restoring the original protocol is not good enough. Every opportunity has a limited shelf life, including BSV.

What I am offering below may irk many. I acknowledge up front there is a lot I don’t know and I will likely get several details wrong. Also, text tends to land more harshly than if I made a video so I request this post is read with the context that I am providing ruthless compassion for everyone working hard in Bitcoin. Where I call out failures I’m offering remediation.

So, here are my recommendations:

Calvin Ayre

First, it needs to be stated that without Calvin Ayre BSV would not exist. His investment and contribution are unmatched in the entire space. Thank you Calvin.

Given Calvin’s position atop many important BSV companies he is, like it or not, the de facto CEO of Bitcoin. Calvin may have a team of Generals running nChain, CoinGeek, Bitcoin Association etc but the buck stops in Antigua. Collectively, the performance of Calvin’s Generals could be much better. nChain has had three CEOs in three years. CoinGeek is improving but is far from credible outside BSV circles, and Bitcoin Association, with the loss of Jimmy Nguyen and the voluntary agreement to reassign coins to Craig Wright, is a thinly disguised front for nChain.

This all comes back to Calvin. The good news is he has the power to make changes.

Step 1: Be ruthless in evaluating performance. Fabriik has been an example of what not to do and how rudderless leadership is a bottomless pit of money and time. The opportunity cost lost in Fabriik’s mismanagement of MoneyButton is incalculable. The shift to reorganize Calvin’s BSV entities will require outside help. Hire a Transformative Business firm. What you have now is not going to get you where you want to go.

Step 2: Hire the best. This is simply said yet very difficult. As an example (and I expect to catch flak for naming a sacred cow in BSV): Stefan Matthews has been a key figure in the Bitcoin story and served in several positions for Calvin along the way. He also seems a very likable and competent chap and one of CSW’s closes friends. But has he produced a result worth noting while at the helm of any of Calvin’s companies? Enterprise business is competitive. Results are mandatory. Be ruthless.

Step 3: Take a VC approach to spawn a winner. UNISOT, Maxthon, PowChess have enormous potential and have fallen to the side due to lack of support / resources. These are the potential unicorns that must be nurtured long term to realize potential. Focus and consistency require steady leadership.

Either Calvin steps up to hold his Generals to account or he hires someone who will. I don’t see the current situation improving otherwise. BSV needs incredible leadership to navigate the numerous challenges ahead.

To sum it up for Calvin: less tweeting and more ruthless ass kicking in the board room.

nChain

nChain’s website states: “We unlock the potential of enterprise data by making it reliable.”

Products listed include:

Digital cash: A regulatory compliant cash product that allows citizens to use a digital form of central bank money for payments.

Digital money: A blockchain-enabled approach to managing assets, accounts and ledgers across different financial institutions and money transmitters.

Kensei: Enterprise data integrity

I will add a fourth product line: Patents. nChain exists to develop patents. Many large successful companies have patent portfolios. If you have been to Qualcomm’s headquarters in San Diego then you have seen their patent wall:

Being an industry leader in a new space requires patents to protect intellectual property. nChain’s competition is not standing still. However, if you have a patent fortress but are inept at forming relationships due to a revolving door in the CEO suite and a divisive Chief Scientist what is the value of the patents? This touches on another issue in BSV that needs to be called out: superior technology does not always win.

Bitcoin Association (BA)

From their website:

Bitcoin Association is .. the global industry organization which advances Bitcoin SV (BSV). It brings together enterprises, start-up ventures, developers, merchants, exchanges, service providers, blockchain transaction processors (miners), and others in the Bitcoin SV ecosystem.

Jimmy Nguyen did a fantastic job as a spokesperson for BA. He traveled the world speaking at conferences and networking with family offices to educate people about BSV. Yet, the markets didn’t move and development has been slow. This raises tough questions about how someone like Jimmy can be on the road for 2 years pitching a trillion dollars in family office money and leave BA without multiple marks in the Win column and billions of new investment in BSV.

My recommendations for BA (if I am correct in assuming allocating resources is under their purview):

POWChess

Chess has gone through a renaissance over the past 5 years. Visitors, logins and games on Chess.com have exploded in number. There is also a pantheon of interesting and charismatic Chess professionals including the highest rated player ever: Magnus Carlsen.

BSV is a perfect match for Chess. Entire games can be permanently recorded in a single BSV transaction. If you wanted to play your favorite professional you could do so with a BSV powered and monetized POWChess.com. It would be an absolute thrill for many to pay to play 16 year old Indian Grandmaster Praggnanandhaa. A BSV powered POWChess could make this possible and your game could be an NFT. Chess influencers (yes they exist and they get millions of views) could make a living just playing Chess on a monetized POWChess.com The possibilities are endless.

Instead, BSV sponsors a professional darts player and a UFC fighter? This does not translate well into BSV use cases. There are numerous opportunities to sponsor Chess professionals who produce daily content for their millions of online followers who would then be exposed to BSV on a daily basis.

Chess is a golden opportunity and POWChess should have an entire team at BA supporting their efforts as well as an eSports team recruiting and supporting Chess professionals. The lack of vision in this area is a head scratcher.

UNISOT

UNISOT (Universal Source of Truth) entered the BSV scene several years ago with a focus on tracking salmon caught in Norway from stream to table. This makes a lot of sense for fine dining (or any luxury good) to verify, protect and justify premium prices.

There is a legendary seafood restaurant outside Chicago named Bob Chinn’s that would publicly post their waybills for all of the food they received that day. If you feel like eating crab you could see that the crab you are ordering was caught off the coast of Alaska less than 24 hours earlier.

UNISOT gave several CoinGeek conference presentations about how they were addressing food quality, safety and freshness on the BSV Blockchain. Today fish, tomorrow every consumable, luxury good and manufacturing SKU known to man could be verified on BSV. Or so we thought.

The issue is, where are the transactions? If there are clients of UNISOT we’d see the transactions on BSV increase. Something is “fishy”. I’m reminded of this Wendy’s commercial from the 80’s:

Wherever this roadblock is it seems to be in Bitcoin Association’s wheelhouse to address it so UNISOT can deliver.

Non Fungible Tokens

In April 2021 I wrote “Real World NFT Case“. An excerpt from that post:

Electronic Arts, has made $1B on a game called Apex Legends that is 100% free to download and play. Respawn’s revenue originates from an in game market where players can buy unique items for their characters: cosmetic weapons and outfits….

Each of these in-game cosmetic items could be an NFT. That NFT could then be traded between players in the store via auction or via set prices with Respawn taking a cut of each resale. Some of these cosmetics were time limited meaning they can no longer be obtained unless purchased from another player. Respawn currently has no way for users to trade cosmetics. An NFT based user to user store is instant additional revenue for Respawn.

EA earned $1B in cosmetic skins in a free to download online game but they have no way to capitalize on users trading limited version skins. There is a lot of money being left on that table and BSV / BA can provide a solution.

Now, imagine if BSV made progress with Bernard Arnault who runs the worlds largest luxury goods company LVMH. Knock off goods are a major drain on a luxury brand’s image and revenues. One way to protect that brand and ensure that consumers are getting what they paid for is to track the ownership of any item with an immutable record on BSV via NFT. See below this collection of knock off Goyard and Louis Vuitton bags available at a Thailand night market for a fraction of the cost of the authentic goods.

One of the hallmarks of a luxury brand is a strong resale market. With an NFT second hand buyers can be assured the second hand market good they want to purchase is authentic strengthening the brand and justification for charging a premium price at retail. This concept can be applied to anything you can imagine. Luxury watches, paintings, aircraft parts etc.

Maxthon: 670,000,000 users

The Maxthon browser is used by millions of users. The founder, Jeff Chen, has been a BSV proponent and a speaker at several CoinGeek conferences. BSV on Maxthon has tremendous potential and was declaring their intention to further integrate BSV. Today, there seems to be little collaboration with Maxthon and BSV. When I reached out to Jeff Chen on Twitter he responded:

That is unacceptable. Maxthon and Jeff should be receiving top tier support and resources needed to integrate BSV. A workaround is a missed opportunity. Maxthon should be leading the way in providing a Bitcoin based micro transaction and secure identity browser.

Peer to Peer Electronic Cash

The promise of Bitcoin is “Peer to Peer Electronic Cash”. Bitcoin has fallen behind in this regard.

I currently live in Thailand and recently established a Thai bank account. A Thai bank account unlocked a new payment option that is very similar to a Bitcoin wallet: QR code scanning. Anywhere you can spend money (including the local street vendor) you can use your phone to scan and send money. This works from any Thai bank to any other Thai bank for zero fees. It’s nearly identical (but slightly better) than the best Bitcoin wallet experience. As a result, I haven’t touched physical money in months. Another feature, this does not require Visa, Mastercard etc.

While Thailand may be just one country it’s an illustration of the lost opportunity for Bitcoin.

BSV has spent the past few years in numerous battles to establish a return to the original design. That lost time has allowed the competition to cement their network effect with zero fees and outstanding user experience. It will be very difficult to displace this ubiquitous payment solution in Thailand.

If you want a product to go viral take something people do every day and make it easy.

Peer to Peer Electronic Cash is no longer the main talking point for Bitcoin. The shift to data ledger, time stamp server and audit trail are the current talking points. I think this is a mistake.

One of the sticking points to Bitcoin adoption is user onboarding with the main the challenge being the volatility of the value of Bitcoin. My recommendation in this area is a stable token. Note: I did not say a stable coin. A stable token can be issued on Bitcoin pegged to a dollar value. Calvin, or a group of investors, could fund this token in a regularly audited account to provide the means to transact online with BSV (via the stable token) without fear of volatility.

Example target market: Paywalls. One single account using a stable token that can grant access to any paywalled article on the Internet. It’s a starting point to show the proof of concept and establish the value of BSV as a means of exchange for small Internet based transactions (which hopefully leads to unit of account later).

CoinGeek

CoinGeek is the media arm of Calvin’s BSV empire.

Step 1: Change the name. CoinGeek is not a name befitting the role that Bitcoin needes in this space. The name change provides the opportunity to refresh the entire PR strategy for BSV. DO NOT craft this strategy in house.

Step 2: Hire new editorial staff. Most of the articles are so heavily biased that they aren’t fit for mass distribution. I understand this challenge myself as it’s difficult to cover a space and not leak bias.

Step 3: Build credibility. Raise the standards to be published and strive to strike a balance in reporting. Is Coingeek a news source or the Op/Ed page? This will be difficult work but not impossible.

Craig Wright

Plain and simple, I believe Craig Wright to be the person behind the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. Craig has an extraordinary intellect and work ethic.

Craig’s gifts also come with a diagnosis of high functioning Asperger’s. Craig is open about his condition and has recommended several books on the topic for anyone who would like to learn more about how he thinks and operates.

In the early days of Bitcoin there was a team acting as a buffer between Craig and the public persona Satoshi. As a result, Satoshi responded with impeccable grammar and the highest level of professionalism.

Satoshi isn’t a man, he is an ideal. This is why I stated that Craig is the man behind the pseudonym and not the man himself. No man can be an ideal, but any man can strive to live up to an ideal.

Stick with me because this is important.

Satoshi is an ideal. Craig Wright is a man. Craig can be petulant, pedantic, bombastic and unreliable. But what man can say they are not these things at certain times. Like it or not, Craig is now in the public eye so his statements can be endlessly criticized. It’s not fair but it’s true.

Add into this mix that Craig is, self admittedly, handicapped when it comes to interacting with other humans and the stage is set for the damage to be done. Let me say that Craig has handled an extraordinary level of stress and pressure. Yet, like any man, there are limits and when those limits have been pushed Craig has lashed out with threats and hyperbolic statements that have undermined his credibility and had a negative impact on Bitcoin.

My recommendation is that Craig reestablish a support team to be a buffer between him and any public communication. I understand through discussions with others close to Craig that establishing a new team has been attempted and failed. Understandable. Craig had a team once and that failed so he is reluctant to try it again. But, for the good of BSV, Craig’s own happiness, and his legacy there must be a buffer between Craig and the public or his Asperger’s will be a roadblock to Craig achieving his goals and to BSV realizing its full potential impact on humanity. I cannot understate the stakes of this game.

Craig, I urge you to accept this support to further your goals. Get off of slack and any other social media. Let your team support you in communications and focus on your work. You have so much to give to the world. Don’t waste another second listening to or communicating with anyone that isn’t contributing directly to your goals.

No man can live up to an ideal 100% but they can achieve more than they thought possible in the attempt.

To that end, I salute everyone who is working in Bitcoin. We may have disagreements but we are working towards the same goal. I hope my feedback is constructive and I am open to discussing any of these ideas. You can reach me via DM on Twitter: Coinspeak.

The Kleiman vs Wright Bitcoin trial has come to a conclusion and Craig Wright’s defense won on all counts except one.  The plaintiffs won regarding “conversion” of assets in W&K Info Defense at the time of Dave Kleiman’s death. The price tag on the conversion ruling is $100M.

So how is a $100M judgement a win for Wright? $100M is a fraction of the $65B or more that was at stake in the case and allegedly a fraction of a recent $3B settlement offer. Here is an exchange between the plaintiff lead lawyer Vel Freedman and BSV billionaire investor Calvin Ayre.

you are pathetic small man Vel…you lost and you will continue to lose. I was in multiple settlment rounds as a business advisor and you are lying. The last settlement numbers just a few weeks back was multiple billions and you talked Ira out of it on behalf of you real bosses.

— Calvin Ayre (@CalvinAyre) December 7, 2021

yes…because Vel works for Digital Currency Group not Ira…in my opinion. There was a settlement that Craig and Ira negotiated in person and Iras advisors talked him out of it because it would have made Craig look good. Ira should be suing his lawyers now.

— Calvin Ayre (@CalvinAyre) December 7, 2021

These are big accusations from Calvin Ayre but they are not without merit. We will see how it plays out.

Back to the case, the ruling awards the funds to W&K Info Defense rather than the plaintiff Ira Kleiman. Kleiman will have a difficult time claiming any of the money assigned to W&K Info Defense as Ira was a minority shareholder. W&K Info Defense was legally shut down with zero value by majority shareholders Craig Wright and his (at the time) wife Ramona Watts when Dave Kleiman passed away. Ira’s $100M “victory” will likely end up costing him money if he chooses to pursue this dead end as it appears Ira doesn’t have proper legal standing to bring a case against W&K to claim the money.

https://twitter.com/LoveBitcoinSV/status/1467935211824422912?s=20

What does the end of this trial mean? It means a jury found that Craig Wright is the sole inventor of Bitcoin. Ladies and gentlemen, this is Satoshi Nakamoto:

After his resounding trial WINs in the Kleiman case today, a word from #CraigWright (#SatoshiNakamoto) to his supporters#Satoshi #Bitcoin #CraigWrightisSatoshi pic.twitter.com/oS6UbglGN8

— Jimmy Nguyen (@JimmyWinSV) December 6, 2021

And what did the markets think? Not much really. BSV had a pump off it’s recent lows but it is back in the range it’s been in for over six months. People are still digesting the news and crypto twitter is a shitshow of mudslinging, cope and FUD.

My take is this is a good thing for BSV and Craig Wright. However, I don’t see this legal confirmation and news changing the crypto landscape overnight. In fact, I think there would be much more impact if Craig follows through on his statements about moving Satoshi coins, win or lose, at the end of the trial.

Moving the coins will shock the entire crypto ecosystem and reset the balance of power in BTC vs BSV. For maximum impact these coins should move soon.

 

Day 2 of Kleiman vs Wright is nearing completion. The mid day update was that “Mastering Bitcoin” author Andreas Antonopolous was cross examined by Craig Wright’s defense team. The defense put forth the theory that Andreas was not a Bitcoin expert but instead a social media celebrity with an economics education equivalent to a high schooler as well as lacking impartiality due to his personal financial interest in Dr Wright losing the case.

One of the best summaries of the current BSV landscape is provided by Unbounded Capital. I highly recommend reading the entire post. The overview section states:

A Florida civil suit over the $70+ billion Satoshi fortune that started November 1st could lead to broad market awareness that Dr. Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto. This could have significant short term price impacts on Bitcoin Satoshi Vision (BSV), a version of Bitcoin which Craig Wright is heavily associated with and endorses as “the real Bitcoin”. We believe that the market has an outdated perception of Craig Wright and the potential that he is Satoshi Nakamoto. Additional scrutiny of existing evidence due to the high profile nature of the trial as well as the potential for new evidence presented in trial could significantly change public sentiment regarding the likelihood that Craig Wright is Satoshi. We believe this could result in a rapid and significant price increase for BSV, due to its association with Craig Wright, its technical merits and market traction which have been overlooked to this point, and in part because of its accessibility to retail investors via Robinhood. BSV is also one of the most shorted cryptos, meaning that there is potential for both a short squeeze and a gamma squeeze, the latter in part due to positions held by Unbounded Capital.

The outcome of this trial could reshape the entire 1 trillion dollar crypto market. Are you paying attention?

The rubber has met the road. It’s all or nothing from here.

 

The term “Crypto Fundamentals” is an oxymoron. The two words don’t belong in the same sentence.

Ethereum network fees are north of $50. Some NFT projects on ETH have suspended operations due to high fees. BTC, the market cap leader in the space, is capped at transmitting 1MB of data globally every 10 minutes. DOGE is #10 by market cap.

Do these “leaders” seem like the future…of anything?

This month SHIB, a meme coin based on a meme coin, rose 10x in 24 days.

So, how much longer do you expect this circus to go?

Top to bottom “Crypto” is a joke. The largest exchange Coinbase is shilling hype trains like SHIB. Why? Because more trades make Coinbase more money. This is all a game of musical chairs.

When Coinbase went public in April they shared this information:

In the documents the company released in February for its public debut, Coinbase said Satoshi Nakamoto — the pseudonym used by the individual or group of people who developed bitcoin — could cause significant damage to the company.

If the identity of the creator was revealed, it could cause bitcoin prices to deteriorate, according to the filing.

Coinbase, and nearly every coin and project in Crypto, do not want Satoshi to come forward. A living, breathing Satoshi could easily sway markets away from the scams that Coinbase and others rely on to generate revenue.

I’ll close this post with a quote from Fundamentals Matter:

I’ve met old shitcoiners and I’ve met rich shitcoiners but I haven’t met any old and rich shitcoiners.

Personally, I’m cravin’ the return of sanity to the markets.

In three days the Kleiman vs Wright trial will begin in Florida. Ira Kleiman, estranged brother of the now deceased Dave Kleiman, is suing Craig Wright for 1.1 million BTC on behalf of the estate of Dave Kleiman.

Ira is asserting that Craig and Dave were behind the Satoshi Nakamoto pseudonym and are the joint creators of Bitcoin and as such the estate of Dave Kleiman is entitled to 1/2 of Satoshi’s Bitcoin and Intellectual Property through 2013.

The damages could potentially be up to 65 BILLION DOLLARS.

Notably, this trial is getting almost zero press. This is intriguing given the amount of damages make the trial one of the largest single defendant cases ever bought to court.

This case ASSUMES that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto. This assumption has been accepted by all sides for the case to proceed.

Why does this matter? Because by defending himself in court Craig Wright can prove he is Satoshi and reveal all the secrets he’s been keeping regarding identities and access to Satoshi’s 1.1 million BTC. Doing this in a court of law under oath is the best way to prove an identity despite what the “pundits” on Twitter may say.

This is also important because $COIN AKA Coinbase cited that the identity of Satoshi being revealed was a threat to their business. This trial could have a large impact on the Crypto market which is now larger than the housing market was in 2009.

Speculation about Satoshi’s coins and identity have been a hot topic since Bitcoin was released in 2009. As Bitcoin has increased in price this speculation has increased. There have been repeated demands of Craig to prove his identity by signing a Bitcoin transaction with Satoshi keys. He’s flatly refused to do this except in rare one on one situations dating back to 2015.

The most interesting theory on signatures and what may happen in court next month is outlined at the 27 minute mark of this video:

https://youtu.be/YsFGN9RE-UA?t=1610

As the video discusses, there is a function in Bitcoin called nLockTime. Using this function you can create a transaction that is only valid after a set time (aka number of blocks mined on Bitcoin). With this transaction in hand you can throw away the private keys and those Bitcoin will only move when the time has expired and the transaction is broadcast on the network.

The theory is that Craig used nlocktime to secure the Satoshi coins in a trust. As such, he could no longer sign and was waiting till the trust matured with his nlocktime transaction to move the Bitcoin. The problem is that the BTC devs altered BTC in such a way in 2017 that this nlocktime transaction no longer works. I’m not saying this is what happened but it’s possible. Given that Craig Wright wrote the article below outlining this procedure step by step lends some credibility to the theory.

https://medium.com/@craig_10243/why-the-protocol-is-set-7db4f764c97c

Will Craig prove he is Satoshi in court and that BTC broke the nlocktime function? If so, will the judge rule that BTC must restore nlocktime and/or provide access to those coins to the rightful owner?

Is Satoshi Nakamoto a shadowy anti-government anarchist who designed unconfiscatable money or is he a Capitalist polymath from Australia who created the world’s first public ledger providing transparency & accountability for every transaction on Bitcoin?

And if Craig proves he is Satoshi what does that mean for BTC, BSV and crypto in general?

Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) surround new markets, assets and commodities. This is especially true for cryptocurrency. Empirical analysis can cut through FUD and blatant lies. One piece of information that stands out at the moment is this:

In the three vertical columns we see BTC, BCH and BSV. These are the three SHA256 coins laying claim to being Bitcoin. BTC, BCH and BSV share the same hashing algorithm and therefore draw from the same pool of available mining resources. In other words, they compete for the available SHA256 hashing power.

The first two bars, Hash Rate and Network Nodes, indicate the inputs required to drive these networks. Think of it like a breakdown of how much SHA256 hash each network is running out of the total available sha256 hash. Network Nodes measures how many nodes are running the software for each coin. (The Nodes are debatable as a useful metric but that’s a topic for a separate post.)

You can see that BTC hash dominates at 98% of the total being used between the three coins. That’s a lot of energy and resources. This could be expected as Hash follows Price. Miners are pursuing profit and due to the dislocation in price with BTC the miners mine the most profitable coin (but not the most efficient).

The bottom two bars, Transactions and Block Sizes, show each coins percentage of the transactions and block sizes they are producing in relation to the other two. As you can see, BSV dominates here showing 75% of the transactions and a whopping 95% of the block sizes. This is efficiency.

If the top two bars are the coins inputs (the resources needed to drive the network) and the bottom two are the outputs (the production of these coins) we start to see An Inconvenient Truth for BTC fans. BTC consumes 98% of the hash but produces 20% of the transactions and only 5% fo the block size compared to BSV. BSV is vastly more efficient. BSV produces far most outputs with much less inputs, and it’s likely to get worse for BTC.

BSV is aggressively scaling the network while BTC remains stuck at 1MB. The future plans are for BSV to scale to Gigabyte and then Terabyte blocks. This would be 1,000x and 1,000,000x the capacity of BTC’s 1MB block limit. Ooof, for BTC holders that is inconvenient.

This is the data for the past 24 hours. BSV is averaging blocks that are 15-20x larger than BTC, with several blocks that are 100x plus the max capacity of BTC, for the past several days.

And the BSV network will get stronger as more transactions creates more incentives for miners. Meanwhile BTC’s plans to scale off chain weakens the network and moves fees from miners to trusted third parties.

This matters because the subsidy miners receive for mining blocks on the three networks will be cut in half again around mid 2024. The original design of Bitcoin is that fees from transaction volume would replace the diminishing block subsidy. BSV is on that path. BTC is not. This is a truth BTC does not want to face.

The data below shows the comparison in fees and miner profitability for BSV vs BTC. BTC fees have been as much as 100,000x more expensive. Incredible! Miner profitability varies often and usually favors BTC. This could change as BSV transaction volumes increase.

This has been a very slow road. I posted about this eventuality in December 2019. Maybe by end of year we’ll see the market catch up to these realities.

BSV now producing 60% of the transactions and 60% of blocksize when compared to BCH and BTC.

What will they say when BSV produces 70%?

And then 80%?

And then 90%?

And then 99% as BSV scales and the others do not. pic.twitter.com/dzDI0x0QYN

— Coinspeak (@coinspeak_io) December 5, 2019

But this isn’t just about An Inconvenient Truth for BTC. BSV has a number of it’s own Inconvenient Truths to work though and one of them is the influence of a singularly frustrating polymath genius named Craig Wright. I wrote this about Craig Wright in November 2018:

Most geniuses are rarely appreciated in their own lifetime. The magnitude of their genius only recognized once the full impact is realized, which often takes decades. Another fact that is lesser known, many geniuses are assholes. You need look no further than Sir Isaac Newton for an example.

Dr Craig Wright, the Chief Scientist of nChain, fits the asshole genius description well. Dr Wright, when crossed, is a world class jerk and this character flaw may have been very costly during the past week’s events. Much like Isaac Newton, Dr Wright, “when angered, he became unbalanced and, it must be said, vindictive and petty.”

Far be it for me to write a prescription for how anyone “should” act. Dr Wright has endured more personal attacks than anyone in this space and to his credit he’s weathered them well. I will note however that we each establish a track record for ourselves through our words and our actions and Dr Wright, while an undeniable genius, has an abysmal track record for honoring his word. An Inconvenient Truth for BSV is that Dr Wright’s failure or inability to make good on several claims regarding his disposition of 800,000+ BTC in 2020 has been a dark cloud over his credibility and the credibility of any project he attaches to, namely BSV.

Many people will point to pending lawsuits and larger machinations around securing patents as a defense for the delays. Maybe, but this remains An Inconvenient Truth nonetheless.

Even if Dr Wright never follows through on these statements I see a bright future for BSV. I cannot say the same for BTC and it’s broken economics. If I had to weigh the Inconvenient Truths against each other, I’ll take BSV every time.

So, I remain as always, irresponsibly allocated.

 

Let’s get some facts straight on the stories about El Salvador adopting BTC as legal tender.

First, the average retail worker’s wage in El Salvador is ~$400/month. The average transaction fee on BTC is ~$5 and has recently spiked over $50.

Given these facts how would a person making $400 / month use a system that has fees for a single transaction that range from $5-$50? Using BTC just once a day at the lowest fees would result in $150 in fees in a month, or just over 1/3 of their earnings.

The real situation in El Salvador is that the government has partnered with a third party named Strike. Strike claims it will process BTC transactions on the Strike Lightning Network hub. This would require that users in El Salvador install Strike, purchase their BTC from Strike, custody that BTC with Strike and then they can “transact in BTC” using Strike. Using BTC natively *is not feasible*.

The reality is Strike acts more like a bank. The transactions on the Strike app don’t occur on BTC. They can’t due to fees. They occur off chain for the BTC that Strike has in their LN channel. And if a user wants to “close their account” on Strike and withdraw their BTC they have to pay a transaction fee.

This is not “using Bitcoin”. This is using Stike as a centralized bank and using their off chain ledger to transact. It’s a farce and it opens the entire game to corruption. Further, this points to how the BTC devs have handicapped BTC. BTC cannot serve a small country without a third party due to scalability limits and broken economics.

Although the facts point to the absurdity of the claim that El Salvador has adopted BTC as legal tender there are some interesting subtexts here.

Let’s say Strike is used. It would be the biggest test of LN to date. Let’s keep in mind less than 2 years ago LN was actively branded by LN fans as #reckless on social media, meaning that using LN was a risky endeavor and you could lose your funds. Has LN advanced far enough to handle whatever traffic *might* occur from Strike in El Salvador? Signs point to a firm no. LN is still very broken, but this test could be interesting. It’s a controlled sandbox as long as El Salvador users all use the Strike app.

El Salvador is encouraging it’s citizens to peg their savings to a very volatile BTC. Let’s imagine a scenario, however fanciful, where the citizens do adopt BTC on Strike to some measurable degree. Now those citizen’s buying power will fluctuate with BTC price. This could be good but more than likely it will be very bad for the next year. It’s risky either way.

This raises the question of what is the value of BTC? It’s limited to 6MB of data per hour for the entire globe. That’s an awfully small funnel to push global demand through.

The same scenario applies to ETH etc. This is not difficult due diligence!

Yet, billionaires are still buying BTC.

MicroStrategy has purchased an additional 13,005 bitcoins for ~$489 million in cash at an average price of ~$37,617 per bitcoin. As of 6/21/21 we #hodl ~105,085 bitcoins acquired for ~$2.741 billion at an average price of ~$26,080 per bitcoin. $MSTRhttps://t.co/gLfnOxZEZc

— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) June 21, 2021

The future of digital assets will be programmable and frictionless to use. That asset will be able to host any country’s fiat currency natively as a token.

BTC does not meet this requirement.

 

In the post we’ll review trends and targets for BTC and ETH.

BTC daily cloud below. There were several notable moments on this chart: when price broke below Kijun (red line) around 56k, when price closed inside cloud around 50k and finally when price went below cloud around 42k. All of those signals were tradable. Behind the paywall I’ll show you how my system called the trend reversal at 52k and provided accurate targets for the bear move.

Currently, price below cloud and sideways between 30 and 40k. Trade the range, the breakout or both.

On a shorter timeframe, BTC 4H cloud shows a breakout around 37k. Watch the 40k area.

The chart below has a Supertrend indicator with custom settings plus fibs. This system is very simple. Above the white line is bullish trend. Below the orange line is bearish trend. When the trend flips find the high (or low) and draw a fib to the trendline. It doesn’t get any easier. Targets for that trend are the white lines (the golden ratio fibs). 3.618 is usually the area the trend is exhausted and retraces and/or reverses. In cases where 4.168 level is reached we zoom out to daily chart and draw a new fib.

As you can see starting on the left the bullish trend failed (this happens) but then the fib nailed the targets for the bearish trend.

At ~39k BTC flipped the trend bullish. I’d like to see that pivot high around 41k broken for confirmation to add confidence to the targets in white. Many people are watching these targets. This doesn’t make them bad targets! Good systems should agree on targets.

That’s the technical take. My personal bias is that BTC will struggle around 40k and be sideways between 30 and 40k until the El Salvador situation is clearer. There is always a ton of FUD and the possibility of a Tether pump. There are many ways to play this chart, including doing nothing till the move is confirmed. A lot of traders feel compelled to trade every day. If the price is going to 60k who cares about a move between 38k and 41k?

I tweeted out a month ago that I felt ETH was now leading the market and the coin to watch for direction. While BTC has bounced off 29k to signal some bullish life ETH is still in bear mode under $2,800.

On the left of this chart you can see how the model nailed the top on ETH. The Supertrend is drawn by tradingview. All that’s left to do is apply the Fibs as I outlined above and use the white lines as targets. Currently this chart indicates ETH is sideways in the bear trend and must close above $2,800 to reverse trend. As price has failed to do this several times I’d need to see confirmation above $2,800 for 24+ hours to have confidence this trend is tradeable.

Checking the cloud chart on ETH below we see ETH’s sideways price action more clearly. Price is barely above cloud while cloud is twisting red. Lot of mixed signals. I read this as confirmation of what I said above. I’d like to see ETH above $2,800 for 24 hours for confirmation. After all, if ETH is going to $10k why rush? (spoiler alert, it’s not going to $10k).

My personal bias is that the market is exhausted. There will be a bigger bear market ahead however I will let the charts guide and update my opinion on a daily basis. The trend is our friend!

The largest BTC conference in the world is happening this weekend. Day 1, June 4th, is available here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlshV_tZiP8

Let’s see how BTC Miami is going:

BTC Miami is the new Fyre Festival.

— Emin Gün Sirer🔺 (@el33th4xor) June 4, 2021

Oof, let’s check in on a keynote from Day 1, Max Keiser and Michael Saylor.

where did we go wrong? pic.twitter.com/sQmgcUmT4R

— Fred E ⚡️ (@Fredilly) June 5, 2021

The biggest reason to go to these conferences are the networking opportunities and contacts you make. Imagine paying money to go to a conference to talk to guys like this …

F&ck this CSW propaganda! Not happening on my watch!! ✊#Bitcoin #Bitcoin2021 #Faketoshi #CraigWrightIsAFraud @PeterMcCormack @DanDarkPill @CobraBitcoin @GoingParabolic @CSWisAFraud @CryptoCobain pic.twitter.com/ZXckgiVEih

— HODL ₿e Thy Name⚡️ (@michael_hodl) June 4, 2021

I encourage you to watch Day 1. See how far you can make it and if it makes you bullish on BTC. I watched a few hours of the stream. It was a train wreck. The crowd was noticeably uncomfortable and agitated. After all, they paid $1200 to be in a tent and sit on folding wooden chairs to hear people talk about HODLing. And those were the lucky ones. The rest of the ticket holders were outside waiting in a line that stretched for 14 blocks only to be told the venue was at capacity.

https://twitter.com/kevinsekniqi/status/1400835935584100353?s=20

Perhaps more worrisome for BTC is that there was zero talk of innovation, scaling or future utility. There was plenty of discussion about price targets!

Day 2 livestream is here:

https://youtu.be/UQaStIY-pkk

Next weekend the BSV focused Coingeek conference happens in Zurich, Switzerland. It will be live-streamed. Watch BTC Miami then watch Coingeek Zurich.

This is the investment opportunity of a lifetime. Do your due diligence now.

 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is hitting BTC cucks between the eyes with two by fours of logic.

 

Taleb’s Twitter account is locked so let me summarize his replies to the angry BTC crowd with a picture.

I don’t know what Taleb will say at the pro BSV Coingeek conference in June. But the fact he’s telling BTC cucks on twitter to fuck off regularly is highly entertaining. Considering wine shill Gary Vaynercuck backed out of speaking at the January Coingeek conference because some people were mean to him on Twitter I think Taleb will be a much more interesting guest.

Given Taleb makes a living pointing out how systems need to be “AntiFragile” and how to avoid “Black Swans” he may call out every crypto coin in existence, including BSV. Maybe this is a chance for BSV to win a debate against a formidable adversary. Maybe Taleb wrecks everyone on stage and then stops off for some shawarma on the way home. I don’t know.

What I do know is that the dumb BTC shillionaires like Novogratz and Draper will pay attention. Nassim is a critical thinker. Whether you agree with him or not, it’s dumb to ignore him, and that is why BTC is so triggered.

As far as markets, I am still bearish. If BTC goes under 28,600 I think there is a good chance of another fast leg down to 15k.  If BTC is going to 100k why not wait till the move confirms up first? The rush to BTFD is silly.

I’m prepared for the worst and hoping for the best (not you BTC).